للاستشهاد: اذكر معرّف المقطع (مثل M010-01) واسم المناسبة والتاريخ والتوقيت ورابط التسجيل. المقاطع المعلَّمة «سمو وزير الطاقة» فقط هي ما نُسب إلى سموه في التفريغ؛ ما سواها لمتحدثين آخرين. التوقيتات تقريبية حسب التفريغ.
To cite: give the segment ID (e.g. M010-01), event, date, timestamp and recording link. Only segments marked “HRH the Minister of Energy” are attributed to the Minister in the transcript. Timestamps are approximate.
النص / Transcript
[M010-01] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:00:06 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Good morning, everyone, once again, welcome to this very exciting opportunity, I think, to hear from some of the industry leaders, His Royal Highness and His Highness. At the start, frankly what has been rather a volatile beginning of the year, the energy market binds the world together, and at no time have we seen that more obviously since the start of incidents in the Persian Gulf late last year. With that in mind, I want to get a sense from the gentlemen on this stage about their overview or outlook for 2020, but before I do that, I want to address His Royal Highness and ask if you think the president's decision to take decisive action in the last several days means that this region is safer.
[M010-02] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:01:09 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
This is your second time you ask me about my opinion of what the president of the United States could do and could not do, and I would just refer you the same answer I gave you when we were just finishing up the meeting; the president of the United States is the president of United States, who can do whatever he wish, and he is not certainly accountable to me or anybody in this audience. However, the US, as a strategic partner, have a big role in terms of international security, and we are leaving it to our friends in the US to conduct themselves in the manner they see fit in attending to a situation like this.
[M010-03] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:02:04 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
With that in mind, what is your outlook for this year? and Where is the industry headed?
[M010-04] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:02:10 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
If you are asking me and asking our colleagues here and the industry, we would like to have a stable oil market, sustainable growth in terms of demand, sustainable growth in terms of supply, predictability and making sure that we are focused and attending to the proper challenges of the industry, which is how to produce oil and energy in the most efficient and effective way, how we can manage all of that with proper balance sheets, and how we ensure that demand will grow without fear that this growth will cause any major negative impact on the environment. In other words, sustainable growth of demand in an environmentally safe and sound way.
[M010-05] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:03:15 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Sheikh Mohammed !
[M010-06] · متحدث آخر: وزير البترول البحريني(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:03:19 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, thank you and good morning to all. Allow me to elaborate a little bit on OPEC plus and the OPEC plus actions. His Royal Highness has played a very important role, the most important role back in 2016 when this all started. Now we all believe in the dynamics of free markets. So why then was the OPEC plus decision warranted? I think it all started back a decade ago, when the financial crisis hit in 2008, you had quantitative easing in the US and that made cheap credit available, and a lot of that cheap credit went to fuel the shale revolution.
[M010-07] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:13:44 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Your Royal Highness, I want to pick up on that with you, in terms of the volatility as a result of geopolitical events, when you look at what 2020 has already brought us in just the last several days in terms of those short lived price hikes, where do you see that kind of volatility hitting the market?
[M010-08] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:14:02 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well obviously as a long-term producer and two major oil companies who are in the business for some quite years to come join me. The worst thing that you need is volatility; it does not enable you to plan properly, it makes you much more focused on temporarily in nature events, temporarily could be continual, as we have seen in the 80s and some parts of early 90s with the Gulf War and what have you.
[M010-09] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:14:45 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So generally, we do not like volatility and generally, we like to have sustainable market. Paul Franklin, one of those top economists, which I had the pleasure and honor of knowing him in 80s, talked about continuity, and I think the word continuity is a pipe dream, I think the word sustainability and predictability is what we need. Predictability comes definitely comes with a price tag, and that price tag comes with the notion of the creation of institutions such as OPEC and OPEC plus, unlike what CNBC sometimes or Bloomberg or Wall Street or Finical Times, called them OPEC cartel. It is not a cartel; it is groups of responsible producers try to conduct themselves for the betterment of creating an environment and an ecosystem where this industry can grow and prosper.
[M010-10] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:16:04 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Certainly, the most fundamental component of that stability is to have a sustainable price level and certainly a sustainable growth level of supply and demand. If you do that with a reasonable amount of inventory, you are resolving a long-term issue, which should be our focus. The unfortunate part is, I am sorry for taking more time, the notion that you are realistically have to deal now and then with every player here or a player there that says the following: allow me to play the game with you, using my own rules, regulations and approaches or otherwise I am not playing and not allowing you to play. Therefore, it makes it so bad that every now and then, without being demeaning, but those who are not a team player will have to learn how to be a team player and accept the rules of the game.
[M010-11] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:17:36 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Your Royal Highness, I know that you do not have a crystal ball, and none of us do, but when you look at what the future may hold over the next year and the next decade, we are talking about volatility as a result of geopolitical shocks. How likely is it that we are going to continue to see these massive price hikes as a result of that kind of volatility in the year ahead.
[M010-12] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:17:57 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
In the long term, either things are equal. I did work temporarily for Exxon in 1981; I spent some time about trying to figure out their philosophy of how they conduct their self in attending to foreign exchange exposures. I had a very funny experience because I was told by an economist with Exxon that in the long term, all of these prices would match each other so we do not hedge. That is why I said at that time that Texaco had a great amount of people working on how they hedge their foreign currency exposure. There was no oil markets then a future markets or option market.
[M010-13] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:18:54 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So where do you go? You have two different philosophies that says in the long term, other things will equal each other and nothing of that will happen. In my personal judgment, I do not like this so-called aberrations and volatilities, and I do not like both; lower prices do carry the seeds of higher oil prices and higher oil prices do carry the seeds of lower prices. We have seen it, we know it and we do not need to go through these experiences again because the worst thing that you could have is to have low oil prices that damage permanently the industry. Here you go, when we were dealing with higher demands, we did not have the capacity to fulfill the market requirement and look at what happened in 2000 onward. Once we created that capacity, we lost the economy, then growth did not come, then you had the financial crisis, and again a period of volatility emanated. It is certainly what we need is a global ecosystem that can enable all of these economic components to work in an environment where stability, continuity and sustainability can be an endeavor that can bring all these parties to work together.
[M010-14] · متحدث آخر: المقدمة(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:20:32 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Do you believe that we will ever see the US Secretary of Energy on the sidelines of an OPEC plus meeting?
[M010-15] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:30:39 · IPTC 2020 Ministerial Discussion · 2020-01-13 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I do not see that because of antitrust laws, and I am not a pipe dreamer, but I know that we are doing a great job to the people of Texas, Oklahoma, and I am sure that they are celebrating the work of African OPEC.