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ADIPEC 2020

M022 · 2020-11-09 · تفريغ نصي لمشاركة إعلامية لسمو وزير الطاقة

المعرّف / ID
M022
المناسبة / Event
ADIPEC 2020
التاريخ / Date
2020-11-09
لغة المشاركة / Language
EN
التسجيل الأصلي / Recording
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lZy_iNG2Bk
نوع النص / Text type
تفريغ نصي غير رسمي — unofficial transcript
عدد المقاطع / Segments
27 (منها 13 لسمو الوزير)

للاستشهاد: اذكر معرّف المقطع (مثل M022-01) واسم المناسبة والتاريخ والتوقيت ورابط التسجيل. المقاطع المعلَّمة «سمو وزير الطاقة» فقط هي ما نُسب إلى سموه في التفريغ؛ ما سواها لمتحدثين آخرين. التوقيتات تقريبية حسب التفريغ.

To cite: give the segment ID (e.g. M022-01), event, date, timestamp and recording link. Only segments marked “HRH the Minister of Energy” are attributed to the Minister in the transcript. Timestamps are approximate.

النص / Transcript

[M022-01] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:00:00 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Good afternoon from Abu Dhabi; it is a great pleasure to once again chair the ADIPEC opening session, and appreciate the kind invitation from His Excellency, Doctor Sultan Al-Jabbar, the group chief executive officer of ADNOC, and the Minister of Industry in Advanced Technology and his Excellency, Suhail Al-Mazrui, the Minister of Energy and Infrastructure for the UAE.

[M022-02] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:00:20 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Like all of us here, we would have preferred to welcome you in the expanse of the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre, where we are all contending with as our title underscores unparalleled change with a nod to my Greek ancestry. I quote the Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, who rightly said: ''The only constant in life has changed the words were echoed 500 BCE'', but 2020 has taken that to a whole new level.

[M022-03] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:00:44 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

COVID-19 has tested the oil and gas sector like never before from a ''30%'' demand drop initially, and we are still looking at the sharpest annual decline in history of nearly ''10%'' for the year. The second wave now underway, especially in Europe and in the United States, will reinforce the need for agility, and the right balance of cost cutting with the need to sustain investment, and unearth value from your organizations where the potential exists of course.

[M022-04] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:11:17 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Well, that was the sort of clarity we were looking for an acknowledgement of the challenges and opportunities ahead in the next 6 to 12 months as vaccines become available not only in the developed world, but to the fast-growing emerging markets around the globe. Like the financial crisis a decade ago, the G20, under the chairmanship of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is back at the center of a drive to ensure adequate stimulus is sustained in countries, but that there is a keen eye on those countries which offer growth in the future, but rightly, and which need the funding here and now to get through these challenges. It is a vital agenda issue with the G20 convenes in two weeks time. We have an excellent roundtable that is ready to come to the virtual stage, but we want first to take a look of what has unfolded during the first eleven months of the year through the lens of CNN coverage. Let us take a look back and what lies ahead in 2021.

[M022-05] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:12:42 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

The IMF, International Monetary Fund, managing director projecting a contraction of 4.4% in 2020. The road back to growth is still uncertain, and is linked to the distribution of vaccines, but the global response is better than $12 trillion of stimulus that has buffered that downturn, and has maintained stimulus. It is a challenge, but one that needs to be met for the global economy and, of course, the energy market that we are talking about today. In my 3 decades of covering energy, many have miscalled the demise of OPEC many times. It has proven incorrect once again, especially in the new superstructure we now call as ''OPEC Plus''. It has defined its role as the stabilizer, or the global shock absorber that would have been thought that negative oil pricing could exist even for 24 hours. A perfect storm hit the market in April during an unprecedented drop in demand, and the response was not, as we say in the United States, as a little league approach. Nearly 10 million barrels a day to start 7.7 million now and cuts carrying forward to early 2022.

[M022-06] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:13:40 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

We have four key players involved in that emergency response, and let us welcome them now: His Royal Highness Prince, Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Minister of Energy for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, His Excellency Suhail Al-Mazroui, the Minister of Energy and infrastructure in the UAE, His Excellency, Mohammed Barkindo, the Secretary General Of OPEC, and joining us, Pablo Sorokin, the deputy minister of energy from the Russian Federation. I do not think we could have a better lineup. Gentleman, welcome back to the ADIPEC. I would like to all see you face to face on the stage, but it is nice to have you virtually. I am going to jump right in, if I may here, with His Royal Highness, Prince Abdul-Aziz Bin Salman, and you know, we heard from Doctor Sultan about ''what we have been through, what has been done in response in terms of the stimulus, and the OPEC Plus response, and What is the key take away as we go into 2021, Your Highness?'', and ''Is it that we could have a spillover of a drop in demand that carries through the first half linked to vaccines?'' and ''What did you prepared for in terms of the storm ahead or they optimism ahead?''. Please, your Highness.

[M022-07] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:14:44 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Thank you very much for that introduction, and I would argue that OPEC has been, and continue to be taking proactive role. That is exactly what you have mentioned with regard to the agreement; the agreement goes all the way beyond 2021 to the end of April, with the caveat that we could also decide to extend it for the rest of 22. It is certainly that the April agreement took into account what may have happened, and proactively decided to be prepared for the worst, and therefore we assume that the agreement is not only helping, but it has been actually an agreement which had that vision in its setting as well.

[M022-08] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:15:45 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

We, as you may recall, have been also tweaking with it, commensurate to what we have seen over the last few months, and we still have the same tool in our kit, and we, with the consensus of everybody, we could navigate with this agreement, and tweak with this agreement subject to what we may see in the future. We are also hopeful like everybody in the whole world that we seek a solution to mitigate the virus in the form of vaccine, and the spread of vaccine availability would be the most meaningful type of mitigator for this situation. So, we are still hopeful that vaccine is found, that vaccine or vaccines are spread, hopefully a mobility would be regained, and the state of normality to the world economy would transcend as a result of that.

[M022-09] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:16:54 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

That is a lot of clarity, prince, Abdul-Aziz. It is interesting that you had to say here. You are saying you could tweak, and this requires the kind of the multi-trillion dollars question, and I will follow up with you, your Royal Highness: ''Are you willing to keep 7.7 for a little bit longer in terms of the cuts if the requirement is there from OPEC Plus?'', If the recovery in the first half of 2021 is weak, please, Prince Abdulaziz?

[M022-10] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:17:22 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

John, you know me again that I do not put policy lines ahead of reaching out to everybody, but I refer you to what we have done in the past. We did tweak, and I believe that with consultation with our friends, some of them are present here, and some of them are not, but I know wholeheartedly that they are committed to the principle of tweaking. I would go and argue that it could be a tweak even beyond what the So-called analysts are talking about, but the difference between us as OPEC Plus and the juror is that we are keeping our flexibility in our hands, and when we are looking at the market, we see how these things evolve.

[M022-11] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:18:19 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Keep in mind, and I will just give you an example, you know with all the new spread which is happening in Europe, and commensurate with that, we have the welcome returned of Libya's production, and yet we are maintaining the market in a sustainable stable environment today. I do not think that a lot of people are giving it the right attention, but if it was not for this capability and capacity within OPEC Plus to be there physically present with all the readiness to march, and move, I do not think that we could have had this situation preparing today. Who could have said that with the return of Libya, and has about almost a million barrels today, and who could have said that with the new emergence of lockdowns, which will impact mobility probably partially, but not like what we had in April, and yet we have the stability of the market as it is today. So ''yes'', we are ready right as you know, and definitely, I would not predict, but certainly, some of those who are throwing predictions, may get disappointed, because I think the choices which we have are open choices.

[M022-12] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:19:48 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

OK, that is good, and I can understand what you are suggesting despite your real highness speech about the flexibility.

[M022-13] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:35:18 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

It is great analysis from this super panel, and I am not too surprised. I would like to bring to His Royal Highness, prince Abdulaziz once again on the political question if you will, because I am trying to search for the big elephant in the room here, and the influence of former Vice President Joe Biden who has become president of the United States, and what influence it'll have on the energy market, as you know, and I have covered this, he is earmarked, $2 trillion to green investment, to green infrastructure, and to the renewable power in terms of solar and wind in the United States. He is not going to kill off shell. We have heard that from him, but ''what do you think is the number one impact?'', ''what do you think, your Royal Highness, of the Biden presidency and when it comes to energy?

[M022-14] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:36:04 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

First of all, I would like to congratulate the new administration for winning that election, but regardless of what happens, I think we have quite a history with the US of almost 80 years, if not more of dealing with each other. We are going through the same transformative mode as Saudi Arabia. We are converting our power sector into more towards the renewables and gas. We are seeking the same quest, which is being more efficient producer of energy, and are sure that we are also efficient in terms of our investments. I think the whole quest of being efficient energy producer and energy consumer is a global quest. So, anything that improves efficiencies in terms of production, in terms of handling or even consumption, and also in terms of developing a more sustainable global energy system is a quest that we are all aspiring to achieve, and I believe that every and each country has its own responsibility of attending to that quest.

[M022-15] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:37:29 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I also believe that to do that, we have to develop lots of technologies, and we should be indifferent on which of the fuels that we use so long as we achieve our KPI's - Key Performance Indicators- of ensuring that the world is well supplied with energy, and the world is also producing this and consuming it in a very efficient way. We are also doing it while set we are achieving our sustainable development objectives, and are, certainly, making sure that all of these greenhouse gases at all sectors are being mitigated or handled in a way that will makes us get away with the so-called a win-win situation, powering and energizing the world economy.

[M022-16] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:38:24 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yet, we are doing it in a sustainable way, and that is why a lot of people see eye to eye with us with regard to the circular carbon economy as a concept, which is going to be the congregator of many efforts, and the CCE would come with a big tag in terms of international collaboration, challenging technologies which need to be produced. So, it is a welcomed new approach to US, but it is certainly as a producer of hydrocarbon will look at CCE, and we have been working with them on many things, including the current carbon sequestration. This a program has started with three or four different administrations, and there is a lot of commonalities with the new administration will be doing, and what we are actually physically doing in Saudi Arabia.

[M022-17] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:39:31 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Let me follow up if I may with you because you talked about the 80 years plus alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Joe Biden is not a person of knee-jerk reaction. So, he is going to layout $2 trillion for renewables. He said that he would not kill off shale. He knows the Middle East politics here. ''Do you see him rushing into re-establishing the nuclear agreement with Iran, and then, allow Iran in oil onto the market?'' or ''Do you think it will be a gradual approach, your Royal Highness? or ''Do you want to lend the position of Saudi Arabia during this adept OPEC conference?''

[M022-18] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:40:05 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Well, the nuclear issue is more of the political strategically issue. I think it is certainly not within my domain. Honestly, I also know that there is an institutional legislative arrangement that needs to be seen, and therefore, I would be one of the spectators as opposed to commentaries on this issue. We will handle whatever may happens within OPEC plus, likewise we did with Libya, likewise we did with Iran in the previous situation, and there were so many other countries which went through different scenarios in different situations where their production was severely curtailed for all sorts of the reasons, and historically OPEC alone and OPEC Plus did manage to handle these reversals as they come both at both ends when there is a production declines, Including industrial cost production declines which we have been able to manage.

[M022-19] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:41:17 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Again, It is a safe to bit on the resilience of OPEC Plus with regard to the 2 trillion or whatever the number may be. Again, keep in mind that it will be if it comes, and I hope it does, because it would be spent on the power sector. Well, that is a commendable endeavor, because actually there is no oil that is being used in the U S almost none when it comes to the power sector. So, changing the use of cool and converting it into using renewables is actually a commendable way of attending to climate change issues, and of lending a great deal of support to the mitigation endeavor, including the reduction of the greenhouse gases. It is something that the world would seems to look forward to because, as you may know, John, the U.S and China are the biggest emitters, and therefore, novel and creative solutions like this are commendable, especially that it would impact more or less upon call in the first place.

[M022-20] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:42:42 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Great. Thank you very much for the analysis.

[M022-21] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:56:06 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

OK, I am going to ask for a minute each from our host ministers, Suhail Al-Mazrui, and his Royal Highness Prince, Abdul-Aziz, to finish off. If I am listening to all of you carefully, and we have that under investment in shale now, and that correction, that is probably a healthy correction because of where we got to in the last three or four years, and the IOCs -International Oil Companies- are being much more selective about where they are willing to put money into oil and gas because of the transition and pressure from shareholders does not this display to the strength of the low-cost producers, particularly here in the Gulf, and in Russia, and we could see a snapback in the prices once the pandemic's over.

[M022-22] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:57:43 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

OK, your Royal Highness, you actually recently almost sounded like Clint Eastwood, a kind of saying to traders that do not make my day. ''What do you think about that here in the context of the IOCs?'', and they are under investment in oil and gas. ''What is your forecast here once we get past the pandemic?''. I am not talking about the prices, but this ability of under investment hitting the price higher.

[M022-23] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:58:06 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I have a history with that since I have been involved in this, and you know if you let go, and check out; I have said a lot of things about that issue in the 90s. When I was warning people that the low investments carry the seeds for the higher prices, and the lower prices carry the seeds for the higher prices, and in their reverse does happen too. My concern now is not a lot of people are focusing on the issue of what it takes to maintain potential.

[M022-24] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:58:43 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

You know that lots of people do not either they ignore or not willing to see how much money each and every oil company be it international company IOC. The amount of money that spent on investment just to maintain the potential, is a lot, letting alone even reaching out to their other objectives, be downstream, midstream or diversifying their portfolio, and what you will have if this situation today prevails, and the market situation prevails the most preparing it gets to be extended today. I believe strongly that we would wake up one day with an evolving growth in the world economy, but without enough substantial amount of capacity to attend to that and we have to also say it not only in the terms of upstream investment.

[M022-25] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:59:47 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I would argue that you would have a bottleneck on the midstream; you will have a bottleneck on downstream. It is exactly what happened during the 90s. The reason we had higher oil prices in the beginning of the 20, and what have you until 15, was to do with the lack of investment, and if you look back, you would see it was the lack of investment on upstream, midstream, and downstream. So, I worry a lot that if, as was Pavel was saying in his first early remarks that, this situation would be carried forward with us until the beginning of 2023. We had lost 2020, and this means that we would lose 21 and 22 too, and if you look at the capital, spending that could have happened in 2020, 2021, and 2022, I would love to see how the world will relate to oil prices and energy prices in general with a low investment and the impact of that, as you know, lots of heroes will be lost: lots of contractors would be lost, lots of engineering companies would be lost and lots of manufacturers would be lost.

[M022-26] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 01:01:14 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

There are lots of people who had been under the tire over this year and will be under the tire next year. That is why I believe that the whole energy eco-system, and along with the world economy, would be best served. If the world economy needs the efficient energizer, and moderately costed energy, mitigating the virus, finding the vaccine, and spreading the vaccine, it should be our utmost everybody's in this world at most open purpose.

[M022-27] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 01:01:58 · ADIPEC 2020 · 2020-11-09 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

we have heard that through the G20 chairmanship of the Kingdom. At the same time, I appreciate that as fantastic panel as always, I am not surprised whatsoever. Pablos Row stepping in for Alexander Novak today as the Deputy Minister of Energy and the Russian Federation, thanks very much. Always a pleasure, Mohammed Barkindo, the Secretary general of OPEC, our host, the minister Suhail Al-Mazuri, almost really the minister of Energy and infrastructure, and his Royal Highness prince Abdul-Aziz Bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud joining us from Riyadh today. Gentlemen, it is always a pleasure. Thanks very much for your time and your succinct answers.