← فهرس المشاركات الإعلامية

Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point

M046 · 2021-06-23 · تفريغ نصي لمشاركة إعلامية لسمو وزير الطاقة

المعرّف / ID
M046
المناسبة / Event
Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point
التاريخ / Date
2021-06-23
لغة المشاركة / Language
EN
التسجيل الأصلي / Recording
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-J0ny33WA0
نوع النص / Text type
تفريغ نصي غير رسمي — unofficial transcript
عدد المقاطع / Segments
50 (منها 33 لسمو الوزير)

للاستشهاد: اذكر معرّف المقطع (مثل M046-01) واسم المناسبة والتاريخ والتوقيت ورابط التسجيل. المقاطع المعلَّمة «سمو وزير الطاقة» فقط هي ما نُسب إلى سموه في التفريغ؛ ما سواها لمتحدثين آخرين. التوقيتات تقريبية حسب التفريغ.

To cite: give the segment ID (e.g. M046-01), event, date, timestamp and recording link. Only segments marked “HRH the Minister of Energy” are attributed to the Minister in the transcript. Timestamps are approximate.

النص / Transcript

[M046-01] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:04:11 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Of course, the first day of our annual conference kicks off with a great list of speakers, starting with His Royal Highness, Prince Abulaziz Bin Salman Al Soud. Of course, His Royal Highness needs no introduction, he is the ministry of energy of Saudi Arabia and his involvement in the energy efforts of the Kingdom spans for 35 years. Prince Abulaziz started off as an academic in King Fahad University, and shortly thereafter joined the Energy Ministry, assuming different responsibilities until he became a Minister in 2019. He is not only one of the most notable people on the subject of energy in the world, but he is also the most influential person in the 2.5 trillion dollar global oil market and also he has a very hectic time in the past two years, surviving the challenges that the oil market has never seen before.

[M046-02] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:05:09 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

In his first few weeks in the job, Prince Abulaziz had to deal with an attack on Abqaiq, the largest crude oil processing facility in the world, then His Royal Highness has to cope with the largest ever drop in oil demand in history; as the world entered the COVID-19 pandemic. He also steered the oil market away from the abyss in April 2020, solidifying a producer alliance that has brought stability to the most important command in the world and possibly to the world economy as well. Your Highness, thank you very much for joining us today; I am going to start with a few questions, but, of course, if anyone of the audience has anything else, I would like that and they can, of course, ask them through the Veracast system and I will review them after the initial question I am going to post.

[M046-03] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:06:07 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

So, you mentioned under your leadership Your Highness OPEC has done incredible job stabilizing oil prices, a factor that helped the global economy recover from COVID-19. Central banks have also done their parts expanding monetary policy and governments have also expanded fiscal policy, yet inflation is raising quickly right now; are you concerned about a search on global inflation and does OPEC has any tools to deal with this potential pressures that we are saying on global prices of everything, from second hand vehicle to houses to agriculture commodity prices, thank you Your Royal Highness.

[M046-04] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:06:59 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

And you are a mute at the moment.

[M046-05] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:07:02 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Sorry, well, First of all, thank you to Francisco for inviting me and definitely, the thank also goes an extent to all our friends from the Bank of America, management, staff and everybody, and also I would like to thank your audience, it is always refreshing to be engaged with a variety of audiences trying to reach out to everybody to make sure that our story, our line, our policies, and our directions are hopefully properly communicated. There is one little caveat, if you permit me, I am sitting you here in this broadcast in a place that I enjoy the most, I am with you here from my old university, this is where I got my all education, we call it the so-called without being too facetious in case I angry some people its MIT, its the Berkeley, its the Texas A&M and its the Stanford of Saudi Arabia; king Fahad university.

[M046-06] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:08:15 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

And I am very fortunate also, which gives me a bit of a breather and a different way of looking at my life. I am their chair of the board of trustees and thank you for, for the timely invitation, it came while I am here attending a board of trustees. So again, on behalf of my good old university if there is any good product that this government of Saudi Arabia had done, was to create this university, and it is not me, its Ameen Al Naser, it’s Khaled Alfaleh and its so many thousands and thousands of people that are involved in the sector of the product of this university. So without taking much of time, but I owed to them. Inflation does concern everybody be it involved in oil markets or energy or any sector that gets affected by inflation.

[M046-07] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:09:10 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Am I concerned? Not yet. I still believe that central bankers are doing their job as well as I think we are as energy ministers are doing our bit in trying to bring tranquility and stability, and I think there is a kind of a common dominator, between all of us, be it those finance ministers or central bankers or energy ministers, we are all congregating around the idea that we must continue taking a proactive role in trying to make sure that we retain and maintain stability. We are not yet out of the doldrums of COVID, what we need is the continuity of what we are doing all of us, which is to try continuously be proactive and engage.

[M046-08] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:10:16 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yes, there is a concern, which I hear a lot these days about base case inflationary, which is that you are coming from a quite a hefty reduction of economic activities, and now mobility is coming back and therefore it could lead to a type of potential inflation. I believe that central bankers have a lot of tools in their kit to use to ensure that this potential inflation may be tamed or even tranquilized with time. But of course, we are going through an adjustment period.

[M046-09] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:11:08 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yes, thank you. That is very reassuring that you feel central bankers are doing their job. So let us, maybe, look, at your own position because OPEC Plus policies have enabled global petroleum inventory to return to relatively normal levels across both the OECD but also emerging markets. Even then the oil markets are still in deficit despite several OPEC output hikes. So is there, is there a particular inventory threshold that you are looking at that may trigger a change in OPEC policy? what level of inventory is too tight? What should we be looking at here?

[M046-10] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:11:54 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yes, there is something that skipped me in the replying to the first question; look at the market today. I usually don not like to talk about prices, but you will see it that it is within the ballpark of what the markets were in 1999 and even January and February 2020. So, the fact that the market went down, then they came back, but they did not go beyond what people were dealing with for the last four or five years also. With regard to what we do; we try like financial, again like regulators or central bankers, they manage money flows, we try to look at inventories and make sure that we, so we have a spoken policy, which is that we would like to maintain our vigilance to ensure that we are not further away from the average of 15- 19, I think this is becoming a centralized even you and your analysis, you look at that and everybody does.

[M046-11] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:13:13 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

We took out 2020 because it is an exceptional year and we should not take it as something, and you know this average is a moving average, so we drop a year and we bring a year as we go. Now, the tricky situation of today is coming to us from three different, if I call it, angles, you see stocks are dropping now, but you do not know; and now we have been seeing a few numbers of those who do projections for 2022, you will see it, and if you look at the full, the rest of the year, and 22 and you are still aspiring to maintain stock levels at the average of 15-19 you would have to look at first at what is the projection of demand and there is a projection of increase, but then you would have to qualify it, is it guaranteed.

[M046-12] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:14:18 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

The jury is still out because we can not discount any vicious return of COVID cases and the spread of COVID at any juncture, and I think this is only prudence that would dictate that. Too there are some other anomalies, which regard other suppliers, as for example, Iran, Venezuela, how much they, what when they will come back and by how much this is a big element of a variable here that we need to also make sure that we understand it could be big, it could be modest and it could be precipitous and it could be extended. There is so much, then the jury again is still out about it, I have yet to see anybody who can give me a defined line of when they when these, including also I would say Venezuela too, there are that are beyond our domain and our industry, it is been discussed somewhere else,

[M046-13] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:15:25 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

But when need to keep space for these things to happen. And now, if you do any of these projections and just add what will, what some of these agencies are showing us, the demand will be in 2022 you will discover that your space of maneuvering will be somewhat limited, and therefore, again, that is why I have been saying we need to be cautious and caution does not mean we do not have to do something. It means that we have to ensure that we do not make any misstep hero there. You know, there is so much in the media in the last few days, So and so when to do this, it is not factually accurate at all. We will do whatever what we think the market can enable us to do, given the amount of information that we have it is existent today, but certainly our target is to make sure that we continue with this 15 to 19 average.

[M046-14] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:16:37 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Thank you, that is very clear, and we are indeed getting closer to that target every day. So, as you think about the demand side, and you mentioned it yourself right now; demand is probably now surpassing 95 million barrels a day. So still meaningfully below pre-COVID levels. What your expected trajectory here? Do you think demand gets back to pre-COVID levels in the next 12 months, or do you think it takes longer that that, and how is the world positioned for that demand recovery? Is that a 12-month window or a little longer?

[M046-15] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:17:24 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Believe me Francisco and your good audience, we do not do demand assessments ourselves. We do not go for the bottom-up approach. We look at everybody’s work and we try to qualify it. So, we look at your work, others, the EIA, cluster of so many, and we try to navigate amongst this so-called recent trajectory and try to create two or three different scenarios that we might work with, but none of these three scenarios will be a product of a certain place, it is an amalga of so many things. So, we, and glad that you asked that question, you know, to ask achieving the target of the inventory target is not about achieving it today. It is also about achieving it today and maintaining it for the future, and this is where come the challenging bit. It depends on where are the trajectories, if you do the clustering that we do, you will find there is a range that is quite wide, where there are those who are too optimistic and those who are too pessimistic.

[M046-16] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:18:35 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

And even if you go for simple averaging, you still have a good gap of two to 3 million barrels at 2- 3 million barrels at a market like this, it really makes or break a market. Sometimes people are anxious because they see the numbers as they are today, but if you take a more stretch outlook and just go beyond the 2022 and ask yourself if you are a policy setter, what are the, and with all the givens that I just mentioned to you, what would be the right way to navigate yet? You do not want to disturb balances and you want to achieve an inventory target that can calm the market and make sure volatilities will be somewhat less, and yet, because there are so many goodies you want to maintain that.

[M046-17] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:19:34 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

And also, you want to ensure that you want to maintain discipline. So even while maintaining discipline, you have to make sure that you reach out to the market with proportionality, sufficient to allow for people to hopefully increase yet that increase does not disturb the market. Yes, I forgot to mention that we have also a role in the taming and containing inflation by making sure that these markets do not get out of hand, but again, it all depends is it going out of heaven because of real supply and demand, factual supply and demand, or is it going out of hand simply because of expectations and trajectories that are excessively optimistic and it is driving expectations as opposed to the real supply and demand situation, existent and may we may all see it in the next year and a half?

[M046-18] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:20:40 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

So given all the uncertainty, does this mean that OPEC Plus will be maintaining their monthly production decisions for quite an extended period, is this the new norm now, or is the market going to go back to the older kind of six-month windows again, how do you see that evolving? should we just get used to the monthly meeting? I mean, that is pretty, I mean, it is obviously highest frequency, central banks tend to give decisions a little, you know, give us three months of rest between meetings, and now you are keeping everyone on their toes every month. So, is that the new norm?

[M046-19] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:21:24 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Well, we are giving people a good amount of level of excitement, after all there are people that are working from home, so we have to be adventurous and allow for people to be busy with us. But no, I think we have already made that decision last time that we should meet on a monthly basis until the end of the duration of the agreement. I think, again, we, and I do not speak about myself but I think because it was a collective decision, so we as OPEC Plus elected to go vigilant, elected to go hands-on and just to make sure that we deal proactively and precipitously with anything that may occur. I think that state of mind is helpful to the market, I think it is a correct approach because without which you may run the risk, that things may go off-hand and you do not want to lose this momentum that you have generated, and now, thanks God, we are keeping to go and, you know, to fade away, and then it would take you a while to rebring it to life again. I think we will continue with that and I think we should continue with that, with a reminder that in the coming meetings we have not yet decided what to do but they would keep coming.

[M046-20] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:23:15 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

So everybody should be ready to keep parsing through your meetings in detail, but let us turn to group dynamics within OPEC, because obviously, I mean, last year there were some tensions between the members right before the pandemic really took off in a big way, but since that initial strain OPEC Plus cohesion has been exceptional in the past year and every country’s worked together within the group to stabilize the market and of course Saudi Arabia and Your Highness, I think, in particular deserves a lot of credit for bringing everybody together and keeping that level of cohesion. How do you see the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia evolving after the deal ends in April 2022, you once said to me that, you know, you were very happy to have Russia as part of this group, but is this alliance built to last, is this something that will be with us, you think, I mean, I am sure you hope it will be with, but is this something that we should be looking at for the next 5 or 10 years? Is this what you are thinking about?

[M046-21] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:24:35 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Well, there are two spaces for it, or there is this space of the multilateral space and there is the bilateral space in both, I would say an arguly, that hardships bring the best of people, and because of that, yes, we went through a fiasco, infamous fiasco, in March and April. However, what you see now is a serious invigoration relationship in both spheres, if you could call it or not spaces but spheres, when the multilateral, it is no secret that we work, I work with Alexander, actually more important heads of state, crown prince himself is in a continuous flow of communication with the president Butin, king himself also. So in the top layers, there is a profound good and solid, not only relation, I would say interaction and communication.

[M046-22] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:25:44 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

At the working level, it is not a surprise, it should not be surprising or a state secrets to show or to tell that me and Alexander, we communicate regularly. We have another issue that joined me with Alexander, both of us are the two chairs of the bilateral economic relation committee between the two countries. So we communicate even on many other issues, not necessarily just energy, and just a month ago, we have had our committee, two weeks ago or so I was in Saint Petersburg, we had a joint session and we have a meeting and we are continuously talking to each other over the phone. What we are doing also with OPIC is that, yes there is a bottom-up approach, there is a good consensus-building approach, and we do communicate a lot way before, even the meeting, and even after the meetings,

[M046-23] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:26:52 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

And we try to understand each other and try to accommodate everybody to ensure that this process will continue to be a consensus build process with a bottom-up approach. I think this fundamentally shifted the whole thing toward something that makes made the whole thing much more pleasing and acceptable. There is one other element, the other element is bilateral negotiation, no we have a big ambitious plans to work together in so many spheres, not only energy, but I could name 2, 10 or 15 different areas of collaboration, and we have the right partners working with each other, be it government or private sector or public companies. We have a timeline, we have a way forward and a timeline and we meet regularly and actually, it is our joint am ambition to make this bilateral relationship more diversified and more worthy for the two countries to continue that relationship. And the bond is getting, as we do that, the bond will become even better and bigger and much more worthy because we have so many things that will be accomplished and achieved for both of us, including our energy.

[M046-24] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:28:23 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Thank you, and one of the questions that has come through the internal system here from our clients is really around your view the, the Russia view and the Saudi view around global oil market share and the ability of shale oil in the US to grow, is there consensus there about maintaining a certain share of the market, and you know, o Saudi Arabia and Russia look eye to eye when you see US shale oil coming back, when we see the count increasing or is there room for a third producer here in the US? What is that level of production that would be acceptable to both Saudi Arabia but also I guess Russia in the years ahead.

[M046-25] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:29:22 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Personally, I think you have Francesco, you have heard me and many of our friends here and others have heard me, I do not get into this so-called zero-sum game approach; the market is full of producers, all the way from China to Brazil everybody produces oil, I think it is an industry regardless of where is it, what we were hoping for, is that also when we set this example a new approach of OPEC Plus that people may wish to congregate with us and work with us, because it is a good enabler for sustainability and stability and quite agile to laws and regulations that are forbidding participation. However, I honestly do not look at shell oil as being a contender or being, you know, or I am engaged as Saudi Arabia with shell oil as a zero-sum game, nor I am looking at it even with all the other producers, be it OPEC Plus or not OPEC Plus, because even if we want to go for that narrow approach, even you have to look at your friends in OPEC Plus, what they are doing, how much market they are capturing, and are you doing your work and capturing markets ahead of them? I think our interest is to do more with a thriving demand and an opportunity for suppliers to produce to meet that demand.

[M046-26] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:31:01 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

The problem we have today, as you can see it, is there is so much uncertainty now, not only on demand, but also in supply with all the talk about the transition and what have you, with all the impediments that are incredibly impediments to the international energy company and international oil companies you are getting into boarding a situation where you have a bit of a demand issue, hopefully, within the year and a half the jury will be, you know, we will figure it out, but the more concerning element now is the supply side and how people would meet demand in the future, yet they are not still comfortable with what happened demand and what we happen to demand with all that is going on in terms of the so-called transition, and you may end up with the being hit with the double one type of thing.

[M046-27] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:32:10 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yos, of course, let us maybe talk a little bit about that, because you recently said that the traditional energy agency's latest path to net zero-emissions report was like a sequel to LaLa Land, if I remember correctly, so what do you think it is the medium-term and longer-term path for oil demand here? Are we looking at a structural demand decline or kind of what happens? Because from our perspective, we think demand in the next two or three years is going to be very strong. I mean, we have the come back from all this pent-up demand, in fact people have not traveled for a year and a half, you have also an avoidance of mass transit because people do not want to sit together in buses and subways, they want to be in their private vehicles, but the medium term is very challenging, I mean, how do you operate in that environment? first of all, do you have a central scenario for oil demand by 2030 or 2040 that you are working with? and secondly how do you position your investments as a country in Saudi Arabia for that situation?

[M046-28] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:33:31 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Good of you to ask this question because, you know, I have been answering it in different ways, but, you know, I would like to try to sit in the seat of somebody who is in the industry, and if I am to be asked what environment you would like to have, you would say, I would like to have certainty about the trajectory and a meaningful way of investing through facilitation of all of the above enablers, lending facilities, accessibility to acreage, a good legal environment, a coherent legal environment, good policies that are clear and achievable, including, by the way, policies and strategies and approaches that will do the best of the two world, you know that does not inhibit, the global commitment to climate change and achieving serious reductions of emissions.

[M046-29] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:34:38 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

But let us congregate around the idea of emission reduction as opposed to hydrocarbon reduction. It seems to be, and this is the hope that we are aspiring to achieve, is to let us try to create a platform that really takes us back to the origin of Paris agreement, and if you look at the pits, the components and the pillars of the Paris agreement and ask ourselves collectively, governments, industry, universities, research centers, bankers, those who are within this ecosystem, technology developers and those who are within this ecosystem, ask ourselves the question, how can we mitigate emission and reduce emission, and yet have a sustainable energy system that can no only just serve us today, but serve us for the years and years to come and decades and decades to come, yet do not burden the economy, but actually enable the economies to grow and prosper, and also important to bring about the so-called missed population, which is the 2.6 billion people that are debriefed of even clean cooking fuels or the 750 million people that are suffering from serious energy poverty.

[M046-30] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:36:11 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I believe it is not an utopia, but it is more of a call for realism. People need to sit, and let us say, we need all of the above and all of the solutions. We need carbon sequestraization, we need circular carbon economy, we need renewable, we need to sort out this much more concerning issue now with regard to material availability, and, you know, in hydrocarbon, we used to have a problem of so-called energy security, because the source of energy was, and the area it is coming from it was in doubt. Now w are talking about a different challenging thing the material to produce these source of energy is under the microscope of serious microscope, which you see it, material that is coming from all over the place, including the IEA, wondering and worrying about how much the world would be secure in being reliant on a small set of numbers of countries and how these supply chains will be guaranteed and how these trajectories can be achieved without getting to the right ecosystem, the enabling right ecosystem.

[M046-31] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:37:30 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

One needs to pause again, I would maybe throw this good event, I would still raise my voice, I would not be shy from speaking my mind off, the world d need a set of serious people to sit and figure out a way for the future, achievable way to attend serious way to attend, you know, people would think of Saudi Arabia, looks at us. I want to one day, come with you Francesco, and showcase what we are doing. We have an event in October that the crown prince will host, I think it is mesmerizing for so many people of what we are doing, and we are doing it, the difference is that we are spending, we are putting our money where our mouths are, the other bureaucrats will not be here to 2030 - 2040, and they are not going to be accountable for what they are saying today.

[M046-32] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:38:30 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Right, and it is interesting, I mean, I think you mentioned carbon capture and storage and sequestration, and there are a lot of technologies that are being developed that could actually enable good chunks of the hydrocarbon economy to continue, and, in fact, from a carbon emission standpoint, they may be even more efficient because as we all know electric vehicles are only clean to the extent that the mining process behind all the minerals required to build in is clean, and to the extent that the energy used into those electric vehicles the electricity generated is clean, right. So, I think there is also a lot of discussion as to how all these numbers are put together, but actually fuel efficiency and potential sequestration in combustion engines could enable a lot of hydro higher fuels to continue to be used in the future.

[M046-33] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:39:33 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Let us talk a little bit about Saudi Arabia’s production capacity, right, and in the past, there was a question here coming through from our listeners asking about your plans to expand capacity. Is that something that you have in mind or, I mean, obviously you are still running, I believe right now, with close to 3 million barrels a days per capacity, probably much of that is going to be taken up when the demand comes back, do you feel a need to expand output at some point in the next five years for Saudi Arabia?

[M046-34] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:40:10 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I did say in number of occasions that we are moving to the 13.3, if we take the Aramco would be 13 and the rest of the divided zone would be about 300. So we made that announcement like I said a year in April, not this April but the April before last, and we are going to be continuously reviewing what happened. Ironically and funny enough is that the more people refrain from investment elsewhere, the more our possibility improve to increase our production. So I should not speak about it, because it would be our good lollipop 10 years from now, but I have to talk about it, because I am trying to be a responsible, you know, human and responsible person who is engaged in the wellbeing of the world, and we are part of the world, we cannot, the more pressure that would be exhaustively put on NOCs and IOCs, what IOCs first, maybe even NOCs, the more the case would be for us to look at better and much opportunities, because we know that supply will be affected and demand projection would not be as badly effective simply said.

[M046-35] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:42:11 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

SO, I mean, that is, I think, very clear, and I concur with you. I mean, the pressures on the supply side are enormous whether it is from policymakers, the international energy agency in particular, and many governments, but also from investors who are asking companies to improve their financials in the case of US shale, or in many other instances, pressuring investors, pressuring companies from an ESG standpoint to limit their emissions or reduce their energy Capex. And there of course the judiciary, which has gotten involved recently within the case of shell ordering and instructing an outright sale of or sorry, outright reduction of emissions, which we think will trigger asset sales in the case of energy, because, you know, obviously reducing your emissions by 45% in 9 years as an oil company, like Shell is going to be very difficult without investments.

[M046-36] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:43:10 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

So, Let me ask you about this. Do you think there is a risk that the hydrocarbon sector starts to run out of capital in the next 10 years with all this pressures, what happens then, I mean, you mentioned yourself, I mean, Saudi Arabia probably has to pick up the taps. But at the same time it is a very uncertain scenario over the next 5 or 10 years. On the one hand, if demand continues to grow and investment is not forthcoming, prices will be very high and people will look at Saudi Arabia, to meet the gap. On the other hand, if policies are successful and then demand goes down substantially, then you could be left with a fair amount of spare capacity. What do you think, what do you tilt here? Do you think the risk is that we run out of money, out of Capex in investment in the energy sector, or do you think that the risk is to the other side on, on the demand side, kind of coming down sharply below 90 or 80 million barrels a day within 10 to 15 years?

[M046-37] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:44:25 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I don not think it will come as I think comprehensively, there are those who will be affected and those who will not be affected, like, for example, us, we would not be affected by the so-called lack of investment, lack of funding, lack of acreage and lack of all of these likes, you know Aramco has 30 years and 30 years renewable concession, it could be even extended. We are cheapest producers and we have the best tax regime in planet earth and it is a quite enabled company to thrive and prosper and continue. My concern is the those who are going to be within the different so-called ecosystems and much they could do with, and this is, by the way, this is not going to be the have and have not.

[M046-38] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:45:25 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

We are working also with our own stringent environmental laws, and environmental regulations, and also as I said in many occasions, we want to showcase what Aramco is doing, and you will find that Aramco is top of all NOC and IOC when it comes to its concern and attendance to climate change, and certainly the issue of emissions. You are not going to deal with a set of companies that are, you know, gas-guzzler, , you know, energy, hydrocarbon freaks, they are acting and producing without any curtailment or commitments to climate change. But we are doing it, in fact, we have a record to show that amongst the many countries that have committed to emission reductions that our share of these emissions is, for example, as Saudi Arabia, and you know, with when talking about carbon dioxide, is about 1.2, we have a pledge to make in our NDC of reducing of amongst the entire pledges made about 4%, and we are doing some more, on methane look at Aramco record per barrel, and look at what everybody else is doing.

[M046-39] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:46:50 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Look at, again, Aramco CO2 per barrel, talking about ESG, they just had a meeting two days ago with some of the oil companies. Look you should just try to look at how responsible and responsive the country itself is or the company itself, but you will be dealing with two different ecosystems. Now my concern is those who will be working within the different ecosystem, how would they be able to thrive, to survive? It is an open question . Would demand be reduced without a serious impact on the economy and people start ouching and somebody then would have to relook at the thing it is shameful that we have the time, the ability and the technology and the talent, or what we need to do is to configure ourself to work together, bond in ways of finding a solution and what is the missing part, I think finding certainty.

[M046-40] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:47:58 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

I think without certainty, all of what we will be saying here and elsewhere will be in the form of trajectories that may happen and may not happen, what this whole debated and what have you is just increasing and making the whole world vulnerable uncertainty. And the more uncertainty there is, even without any change of anything, the less investment will happen and the less will be prepared to attend to the future, the needs and demands. So I call for an urgent call, an urgent talk, a serious talk and, again, let us not put our, you know, so-called domesticated preferential dictate the day. It has to be global and if people want to be inclusive, they have to be mindful of other people, also priorities, and national circumstances.

[M046-41] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:49:03 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Bit what may, we are still going to be the last man standing and every molecule of hydrocarbon will come out. And by the way, I forget to mention to you, we have our own hedging as you financials like it, we have our hedging program. We are working hard and laboring hard and creating, we have a serious program, we call Estedama, which is sustainability, which is to try to attract investment in non-conventional sectors, whereby we can increase the demand on hydrocarbons, and that program is up and running. It's been at work for the last almost a year and a half. What is our aspiring is to create a sufficient good amount of demand for, as again, it is not going to be in transportation, it is not going to be in any of these usual sectors that hydrocarbon been disposed of, it will look at materials, it would look at so many things and it is a win-win situation. If these things mature, it would be an additional to our liquid or hydrocarbon requirement, if demand get to be disturbed, we have that hedging tool, where we can move these crudes to, if it does not, or it does not happen in the most vicious way that people are projecting, then again we will have a meaningful way of increasing our production as you are coming from an increased capacity.

[M046-42] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:50:54 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yes, let me, you know, we are almost past the top of the hour, the scheduled time, but let me ask you one last question, because, you know, you mentioned Saudi Arabia, Saudi’s own domestic goals, and clearly you have a goal of reducing Saudi’s domestic oil demand and crude burn right, but also I know in the future, one of the much talked about energy sources is hydrogen, which is also that something that Saudi Arabia with its particularly its ability to expand solar power could really delve into. So, do you see an important decline in domestic demand, particularly direct crude burn and domestic fuel, and also, do you see the ability of Saudi Arabia to become a critical playing in other new energy in the future, like hydrogen, is that because something that that you have your eyes on?

[M046-43] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:51:57 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Yes, which again bring me to that response just a while ago that if people come and see what we are doing at all levels in all different directions, because what is our incubator now? It is the circular carbon economy; we work with the 4Rs; so we reduce, so we recycle, so we reuse and so we remove and if you take these as being your target and you want to score and score high with all of the above, to also allow you to achieve the other thing which is a mission reduction, we have an effective efficiency program, which I keep talking about. Indeed, we are involved in so many pioneering ideas, we using technologies to reuse and recycle hydrocarbon, just to make sure that we and remote and carbon capture and carbon sequestration is a fundamental element from an energy perspective.

[M046-44] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:53:00 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

There is other things, which is growing tress and we have this green mission, but hydrogen also is something that we feel is so fitting for us because we have a good gas resource we are now, believe it or not, we are using shale oil technologies to reach out to our shale oil gas and shale oil too, we do not need shale oil now, but with regard to shell gas, yes we need it. We have been scoring the low cost or low prices for producing solar and to a certain extent wind and we have had a history with desalination. So we know for a fact, now as we speak today, that we want to go our target is to go grow big with blue hydrogen, and big with green hydrogen, we feel strongly that we are the, probably the most enabled country to achieve those two scores.

[M046-45] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:54:09 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Of course, it would help a lot if we can configure and configure how much would be the demand in the future for both hydrogens, but as a matter of scaling up from here and 2030, we know for certain that, at least our target or our objective is to be the biggest country producing both. It will help us a lot of people can, again, sit together, figure out what is their future need, but about solar, yes, there is a good, by the way, on all of these things I could show and demonstrate to anybody that we have a good solid economic case. So, even if we are moving from 50/50, from mainly liquids to 50/50 renewable and gas, when it comes to our power sector, I could easily showcase that this program should have started 20 years ago, 10 years ago, and it is shameful that it did not happen some time ago, because the amount of saving and the amount of investment that we do is almost minus compared to the benefits that we get, including emission reduction.

[M046-46] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:55:30 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Absolutely, well, thank you, I do not want to keep you any longer. I know you have been very generous with your time, we are with almost had, a full hour with you. It is been an absolute pleasure and you know I really appreciate all the comments that you have made. I think you have helped us understand where OPEC is going, where Saudi Arabia is going and how you are thinking about next, not only the next few months, but also the next few years, I am not going to ask you about the next meeting next week, which I know everybody wants to ask you about, because I know you cannot say anything. So, I have had lots of questions about what is going to happen next week, but I am not going to ask that question, I know better, but I am sure you will come to the right decision when you meet. So thank you very much.

[M046-47] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:56:26 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Can you give me a second?, Again very grateful for this opportunity to be part of your ecosystem, talking to your clients and everybody at the Bank of America, I still would like, you know, I have to do a bit of promotion for Saudi Arabia for sure, please come and visit us, and come and visit this institution, you will be very happy to see where we are with our education, we are very mindful of the idea that, you know, the true energy of any country is the energy of its own people. So, I am glad also to tell you that in the coming September, this university is going to be a uni-techs university. I am so proud of the idea that I am, as a chair of broad of trustee, I was the person who announced that.

[M046-48] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:57:30 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

SO, actually, we will have a festivity in September, yes there was a graduate student that came in the last year, and there again, the fact that I was the chair of the board of trustee, but in September, we will have the first admission for young girls to go undergraduate and our ambition, by the way, and the numbers may lead this to believe that in two years, do not be surprised that most of these universities in Saudi Arabia will be filled with young, ambitious, hardworking, aspiring to be better than all of us, and my God, they really put a challenge for us at work for universities, so I am in a talking to you from a proud spot, from a proud country and working with an energetic society and energetic young, both men and women. Thank you again, Francesco.

[M046-49] · متحدث آخر: المقدم (other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:58:33 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Thank you very much Your Highness. You have been extremely kind and we look forward to welcoming you again to our next forum. It is has been a pleasure and all the best in the rest of your day with you board of trustees have a great rest of the day. Thank you.

[M046-50] · سمو وزير الطاقة (HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:58:53 · Commodity Conference - The oil market at an inflection point · 2021-06-23 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت

Thank you.