للاستشهاد: اذكر معرّف المقطع (مثل M099-01) واسم المناسبة والتاريخ والتوقيت ورابط التسجيل. المقاطع المعلَّمة «سمو وزير الطاقة» فقط هي ما نُسب إلى سموه في التفريغ؛ ما سواها لمتحدثين آخرين. التوقيتات تقريبية حسب التفريغ.
To cite: give the segment ID (e.g. M099-01), event, date, timestamp and recording link. Only segments marked “HRH the Minister of Energy” are attributed to the Minister in the transcript. Timestamps are approximate.
النص / Transcript
[M099-01] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:00:01 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Your Highness, very nice to have you here, and thank you for being willing to have this fireside chat with me. I have asked my crystal ball. What could I ask His Highness? Came up with the list of a 1000 questions, so I have to summarize a few of it and put it to you. I guessed the first question that I want to ask is that given expectations by my crystal ball that the oil demands still grows a lot from where it is today, 8 to 10 million barrels per day in front of us, and we always worry about where the supplies will come from, and given the level of underinvestment, given the difficulty of adding substantial capacity today.
[M099-02] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:01:00 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I have heard from the press that Saudi Arabia plans to add one, sometimes one and a half million barrels per day, I am not sure which is the right number, to the capacity by 2027. Could you throw some light on the timing? Is it one? Is it one and a half? Is that are we at the limits or are there even room for more? And read that question also, there is my crystal ball said please ask him, is the 12 million barrels per day a sustainable capacity today or is it a surge capacity? Lots of people asked this question that can it really be sustained? And when we go to 13. Can the 13 be sustained? And when we talk about sustained, I will be talking about 1,2, 3, 5 years. If you could share some ideas, please.
[M099-03] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:01:54 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, first of all, I cannot help it being in Bahrain to share a few early comments or early reflections, it has been quite a few years I have not been coming here, but, in my salad days, as the British would say, I used to come here when I was upmer, KFupmer university that Mohammed, Sheikh Mohammed graduated from also, and we used to have our bit of peace of adventure coming to Bahrain every other weekend, if we can, or what have you, so I cherish quite a few days and nights with friends and peers that some of them I still maintain my personal relationship with them, some, unfortunately, we have lost, but this this country, I have got a great deal of gratitude and great deal of nostalgic moments that it will always be with me and what a country and what a people, they have always consistently been welcoming civil, and it just as a country, as a society, it just give you that immediate, spontaneous click of sense of belonging.
[M099-04] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:03:22 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So I went to, on behalf of everybody here, just thank the leadership of Bahrain ever since when I was a kid, I met Sheikh Isa"رحمة الله عليه." and he was so gracious with me. I chaired with Sheikh Mohammed an event that I would never forget that it was in London. I also had had a lengthy relationship with Sheikh Hamad of course, King Hamad sorry, and Sheikh Salman, so and the bond between us as family, two families, but I am much more focused on the bigger families that is Saudi Arabian and Bahrain. The stretch of relationship, the bond of the family relationship is beyond being described, and I also and given the fact that we have lost recently a renowned leader Sheikh Khalifa Al Nahyan.
[M099-05] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:04:33 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Again, I would have to mention that we all are in a state of mourning, even today, with mourning a leadership, a friend, and we are also sharing the same moments with the royal family, there be back in Abu Dhabi or even the other Emirates. So again, it is nice to have a healthy, brotherly, friendly neighborhood. Back to your crystal ball, I have given Fereidun ever since early evening last night until this moment a type of excitement, but I have declared in front of our friends who were sitting in the other room a type of serious alert that I am not going to be responsible of what would happen once I share with him what I am going to share with you and him in front of you.
[M099-06] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:05:47 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I told him, I will give you some potential credence to your crystal ball, which you could use it, not only in this event, but probably in other events on how effective your crystal ball was and probably still is, the jury is still out, but if you do not mind, I want to share, I will come to your questions. Do not worry, because I know the traders here and the media here also are anxious to hear few thoughts, but I want to share with you with this document. You asked me last night when we first met, I said, I will tell you tomorrow, then you were trying to pull a rabbit on me and put an indirect question like always Fereidun as smart as he is, and I said, Fereidun you have known me for quite a few years. You are not pulling my leg, so I want you to go in a very regimented military way, and I will ask you a few questions, and then if you can respond, first, look at the date.
[M099-07] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:07:00 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Oh, my God. January 1989. OPEC and Lower Prices Impact on production capacity, export refining, domestic demand and trade balances.
[M099-08] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:07:13 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Can you go to the sticky notes? The first one? The upper one.
[M099-09] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:07:20 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No, I have to have my glasses.
[M099-10] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:07:27 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I always try to bring excitement, guys, you know, because otherwise life will become boring. No no.
[M099-11] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:07:34 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
This the top one?
[M099-12] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:07:35 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No, no. The sticky note, the yellow one.
[M099-13] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:07:37 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Can you open this one?
[M099-14] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:07:43 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No. No. this. Yes. Who is the author?
[M099-15] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:07:53 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Oh, yes. The new rising star in Saudi Oil scene is Prince Abdulaziz.
[M099-16] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:08:07 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No. No. as always Fereid made a goof. Who is the author? I am giving you credential.
[M099-17] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:08:20 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Yes. The author is myself, Fereidun Fesharaki, David Fridley, David Isaac, Lisa Tompson, Tom Wilson. Three of us.
[M099-18] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:08:37 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
It was January 1989. Read the paragraph that you over you jumped.
[M099-19] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:08:40 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
But the rising star I said that you were, I was correct, huh?
[M099-20] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:08:46 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I am just giving you a credential, now it is the jury still out ever since January 1989 whether I am rising star or fading star or vanished star.
[M099-21] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:08:57 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Can I read what I wrote then, Prince Abdulaziz is an intelligent and sophisticated young man.
[M099-22] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:09:04 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Was.
[M099-23] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:09:05 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Is well-versed not only in the petroleum issues, but also international politics and security issues. Many in industry and government regard him as among the most influential men in Saudi oil scene after the minister. Now he is the minister. The prince is also highly respected in the international energy community, so the crystal ball was right.
[M099-24] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:09:28 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, the jury is still out. Now, back to your question, Fereidun. I will keep it to you as a souvenir, I told you I am going to give it to you as a souvenir.
[M099-25] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:09:35 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I will keep it. Is it for me?
[M099-26] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:09:36 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Yes, of course. You asked me too many questions. I will go from the back end of the question to the front end of the question. The back end of the question. Of course, we are going to go to 13.2 to 13.3 subject to what we will do in the divided zone in, but most likely it will be 13.3, 13.4 actually, and that will be attended to by end of 2026, beginning of 2027. Sustainability of that 30 million is, of course, when we talk about sustainable production, we talk about sustainable production, that is not surge, that is not this and that. Can we or should we continue maintaining it? Yes. When we get there and if the market allows for maintaining it, we will maintain it.
[M099-27] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:10:34 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
But like any other producer, and this is what you see today. In fact, that is why I wanted to bring it backward, you know, because we are working in a market where backwardation is a virtue as opposed to be a curse. Backwardated, you see us today and again in all what we see is all the symptoms of again, I will have to repeat it, as an economist I believe in market signals, as an economist I believe in expectations, and if the market signals and if expectations are not encouraging, no industry will expand. In our industry, in energy in general, it becomes even much more emphasized because of the lead time that investment requires for it to happen, as Sheikh Mohammed was saying in his introduction remark, it is the 4 years, it is the 5 years, it is even the 7 years.
[M099-28] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:11:52 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
A million barrels for Saudi Arabia is a work of 6 to 7 years because it is not about the will, it is not about the financial capabilities, it is about pre-engineering, engineering, manufacturing, pipes, drills, wills to be drilled, all of the above. It is not switch on, switch off, and if you do not do it properly, you lose lots of efficiencies, you lose safety, you lose all sorts of things, and it is also has to do with manufacturing, and we are working on a huge localization program and we want to capture every not only molecule, but every dollar that we will be spending on that, so to do all of the above, you need that time, but if Saudi Arabia need that time, what about others who are lacking on financial issues, who are lacking on engineering capabilities, who are lacking on all of the above, and now there are countries that are going to be construed with the limitation emanating from the fact that they are in embargo of some sort or the other.
[M099-29] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:13:10 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
What we see today is a result of what has been happening in the last few years. Last of which is last year, with the, again not find it difficult to keep saying it the la la land scenario which gave market these wrong signals on how people should look again on what they will be investing. Even the last few days, still there are people still continue having the guts and the voice of saying or advice of saying we will still in the so-called cherry-picking mode, please invest on the current existing field or fields that will have a quick payback period in the form of shale oil, but do not invest on green fields because the world market, the energy market will transcend to a period where these new fields, when they come on stream, would not be required or needed.
[M099-30] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:14:24 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
If this is not the wrong signal of a market, I do not know what else. Now we are suffering from another layer of uncertainty, which is, it is not just about upstream, it is also about downstream. Look at refining, nobody had invested in refining except a few countries probably in this region, specifically us, Kuwait and China as far as I know, the rest actually refining capacity went for foreclosures, the US, Europe and what have you. The jury, you know, I have heard numbers here and there, but between PIW they talk about 4 million. I think somewhere else they were talking about 2.5, 2.7. I think your number is around that vicinity.
[M099-31] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:15:13 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So when demand is growing as a result of recovery from the pandemic, we are facing another reality that actually the facilities that can convert oil to usable products have shrunk and actually they are shrinking. So is it an issue of crude availability? And the answer is no. Today, with all what we have done as OPEC Plus, with all, also what the consuming countries did in terms of releasing of SPRs, which is also I have to, again grind it into people's mind that it is also a type of market management, so we are not only OPEC that is trying to manage the markets, it is also the consumers have been participating in market management, so I do not know about this Non-OPEC whether if it is going to be inclusive of all or just those who are producing, but that is a, my cynical mind is just throwing it as opposed to keeping with the flow, so I think, again, I will have to show few, just 2, 3 slides just 2, if you do not mind Fereidun.
[M099-32] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:16:41 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Sure, sure, sure.
[M099-33] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:16:42 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Just to make the point, I do not know if we can click it here, here you go. This is as fresh and as good as it gets, this is price Friday, you know, Fereidun. Never talked about prices, but I am only putting it as it is
[M099-34] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:17:04 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Yes.
[M099-35] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:17:05 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
As good or as bad it is. Look at LNG, look at natural gas in the UK, look at the US, look at coal in EU, look at coal in the US and look at Brent and look at the percentages. Now can I ask our good audience here and those who are hearing me? Who is doing a better job OPEC Plus or unregulated markets? And look at the consequences of it, 300%. 296% and what have you. I also would like to show you the physical impediments that no producer can solve, can we click to the other? Here you go. Luckily, I am with a group here that are veterans of industry. When did we have seen in our life? At least in my 35 years in this business, and I do not want to say how many years you have had yourself.
[M099-36] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:18:21 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
When did we have a 50 or 47? I think it is not appearing properly, but it is $47 of refining margin, 650% change between March and what it is today, or 650% between the average of the five-year average and what it is today. What does this tell you? Simple. It tells you that there is no refining capacity commensurate with the current demand and the expectation. Again, the expectation of the demand in the summer when people go to gasoline, diesel and what have you for their transportation. I have another one, you know, this issue of injustice and justice has been with us.
[M099-37] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:19:36 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
But with all the, if I may permit me to call it the clamor of what is happening to oil prices. Look who is picking the tab? OECD and the G7, and this is, again, fresh from the baker. It is all about Friday prices this Cannon Friday, just to for the record, May 13, 2022. Who is picking the tab? 45%. 47%. Look at the producers, all producers 38%. I ask everybody here, is not it due time for people to reconsider what they are doing with their taxing? If they are complaining about crude prices and refined product prices. That is it.
[M099-38] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:20:44 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, you answered 3 of the other questions I had at the same time and the same thing, but one thing I wanted to ask you is that we do not hear that much about Neutral Zone anymore, given the fact that we need more oil and there are possibilities of expansion there. It was high on the list of the discussions and suddenly I do not hear much about it. What are the plans for the Neutral Zone?
[M099-39] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:21:11 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, we are doing both. We are improving with our friends from Kuwait, we are trying to first improve or go back to old capacities, which was around the 400. Both of us are working with Chevron on steam flooding as a technology, it worked for Chevron in Indonesia. We are testing it and we have been testing it and we will continue testing it to make sure that if we can use the same technology, albeit the aquifers are different in the divided zone I would call it now, then the Indonesian aquifers if that continues to improve with us, I think the number may increase. To what level? I think I will still say give us a year or two for figuring it out, but again, we are trying to maximize as much as the potential can allow for.
[M099-40] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:22:21 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
We have the gas field Durra, it is no secret that we have been having a back and forth with our friends in Kuwait. Now it has been sorted out, and we are moving to develop it. Now, developing Durra has nothing to do with disputes because as far as we are concerned, that is, goes for both of us, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. We honestly believe that in accordance to even what our dividing line between the offshores of Saudi Arabia proper and Iran that, and if you continue with the same methodologies of the delineation of this borderline, all the entire Durra field will be out of any claims and what have you.
[M099-41] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:23:18 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
But even with countries have, with all these so called potential claims, if you have a good chunk of the field or even most of the field or even a partial of the field which is not in any disputed claims or what have you, I do not know what cause anybody to be concerned of developing it, so we are proceeding with that field. We have made a joint public statements on encouraging Iran to come to negotiating table if they claim that they have a piece of that, and it remains a claim, but also we want to discuss it with them as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as one team versus them, because the resources there are of common interest to both countries.
[M099-42] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:24:26 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
And this is what we have agreed to over the last 2, 3 years, and by the way, as a matter of history, this is not a calling of yesterday or last month. Ever since 2000, our friends and ourselves, we have been asking publicly, even contriece it, that we could, we and Kuwait as one group discuss this issue, but we are proceeding with it anyway because Kuwait needs gas, we need gas, and we cannot be derailed for more than 22 years doing nothing.
[M099-43] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:25:05 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
This raises the next question that you have the green power program that you want to bring the power generation to 50% based on natural gas. Can you tell us how we are going to get from where we are to that 50% and when
[M099-44] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:25:28 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
When 2030, how very simple because we are probably the only country. I think also Iraq will have the same story that given the fact that we have gas and we are burning now crude oil and fuel oil, in fact, imported fuel oil, which adds to our misery at a high cost, that we figured out that there is a triple-win situation by investing in gas, converting your power sector to gas and renewable, and you have to be intricate with that because we want to do the 50/50, and that 50/50, by the way, could change if we are to be supported with technologies and batteries because it is the issue of intermittence and what have you, so we want to be not adventurous as opposed to be careful, but the point is, is that with this burning of 1 million barrels in utilities, including desalination, the amount of oil that is being used at domestic prices is truly prohibited, and should not be continued, which, by the way, add to our capacity.
[M099-45] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:26:55 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Yes, of course.
[M099-46] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:26:57 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
If we save that million and if you convert it to international market, we actually adding a million barrels of excess capacity export excess capacity, so it is the two think on one, it is going to be the million that the people see on the 13 something plus the additional million of savings. Now, in additional to that, the price differential for the government of Saudi Arabia would mean that there will be an ample amount of money dependent on how high prices would be in the next few years, but whatever it is, it certainly would be way much higher than the $6 that they are burning for now, and therefore, we will have the means to use some of these fund into investing into the gas.
[M099-47] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:27:56 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
That is why Jafurah is coming, that is why we are expanding the gas pipeline system, that is why we are taking it all the way to the southern area, which is Jazan, and that is why we are going to expand on the renewable and by the way, the propelling or rippling effect is that, that is why we are creating probably the biggest localization program that you could think of in Saudi Arabia when it comes to renewable, gas, oil and what have you and the other winning think is that is why in the Green Initiative, which we hosted, Crown Prince Mohammed has hosted in October last year and will be hosting this year, that is why we came up with the 278 million tons of savings, carbon savings as a result of these activities, most of it would rely or is a product of this program.
[M099-48] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:28:57 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So this is where we have the win-win-win situation, emission reductions by an unprecedented number from a producing country as big as Saudi Arabia, saving of millions of dollars, and that went to waste and making our power sector much more efficient, much more effective, and in all of the above, we are creating a lollipop, if you could call it, which is additional money that may go to the coffer of the government and get to be spent on different things.
[M099-49] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:29:37 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
One last question for me is so far as the balance in the oil market is concerned, it seems that as we go through towards the end of this year, that the capacity surplus, so to speak, dwindles to perhaps around 2 million barrels per day. Is there a number in your mind that is needed to have as extra capacity to keep a balance in the market stop the volatility? Is 2 million the right number?
[M099-50] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:30:11 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I do not think there is a rocket science that can give you that. I think again, I keep telling everybody, markets, all markets are driven by expectations, I think there is ample amount of people in the trading industry in this room that can validate that, so it is all about expectations, so at a time like this, you need more excess capacity to give people the comfort that they have the ability to say that we have a contingency, but with what is going on now, when you have, as you have rightly said, it is bordering the 2 to 3 million. The jury is still out and you are running out of SPRs, too, and you are running out of refining capacity, and you are running out of pipeline capacities because of what is happening in Europe, and you are running out of manufacturing capacity, human resource capacity.
[M099-51] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:31:27 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
I mean, even friends that I talk to in the Shell industry, they are coming out in the public by saying, you know, again, it is supply chain issues, manufacturers issues and cost factors as a result cost factor at all levels, so what I just showed you on refining is not just the phenomenon. It is in every piece, including services, costs are rising and costs are rising because of the lack of existence of capacity, and I will repeat it, the world needs to attend to a serious issue capacities at all levels at all the services that are rendered to be serving the energy industry. We are running out of capacity, and supply chain issues are even porpelling that impact even more seriously. It is not an issue of an OPEC Plus, it is an issue for the world, the entire world to attend to because no one is not going to be impacted, including the producing countries.
[M099-52] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:32:55 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Thank you very much. Your Highness. I wanted to ask you on call on 3 people for very brief questions, and I told them, they said well. Is there a question to be asked? I should no, this is not a fixed question. Ask whatever you like, so I call on Mr Mike Muller first. Is there a microphone could be brought to here? Mike is the president of Vital Asia and one of the top traders in this region.
[M099-53] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:33:32 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
That is very kind. Thank you Fereidun.
[M099-54] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:33:33 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Every week I see a statement from you.
[M099-55] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:33:35 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No every month.
[M099-56] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:33:35 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Depends on how we tall position itself in the market.
[M099-57] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:33:41 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Always neutral, Your Excellency.
[M099-58] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:33:42 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Absolutely. That is why sometimes in one week, you say we think we should go along, and the other week we think the market is too long, too long to be long.
[M099-59] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:33:55 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Fereidun put me on the spot and asked me to ask a question, I guess in light of the most recent news. Congratulations on the terrific results from Aramco and being number one overtaking Apple again. In terms of those proceeds is it conceivable, given the stated desire for Aramco to be the biggest downstream operator in the world, that upstream investments could be considered outside the kingdom to help address the capacity shortfall you highlighted?
[M099-60] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:34:22 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
No, because Aramco will be very busy doing a lot of downstream, especially oil to chemical. Part of our work is that we are investing on almost 3 million barrels back at home and abroad. It is a good opportunity to flag this, that our ambition is to move for another 3 million barrels on a total 4 million of oil to chemical, because we want to do the other leg. See we are looking holistically. We cannot afford to be compartmentalized, you know, and therefore we are watchful of what we want to do with our oil all the way to the manufacturing bit of the, which is chasing the molecule all the way to convergence.
[M099-61] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:35:24 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
This is what we have been doing and we will be doing more, that is why we will be doing at least 1.6 million domestically of a total, 2.61 on refining all the way to chemicals primary chemical, you know, the N and N1 and 2 and 3, and then we will move it further to convergence, and also we will be doing more abroad, when the neighborhood of about 1.4 million, and again, we will go more into which things like what we have been doing in China and what have you, and we will be doing more China, India, Malaysia and the rest will keep everybody in this world, as always, on their toes and very anxious to see what would Saudi Arabia, what rabbits Saudi Arabia will pull in the future.
[M099-62] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:36:17 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
If I just may ask the upstream question again, thank you for the 13.3, 13.4 figure.
[M099-63] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:36:22 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
We have no penny to waste on anywhere else than Saudi Arabia.
[M099-64] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:36:27 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
That is clear. Thank you, sir.
[M099-65] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:36:30 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Everybody should do his own homework. We are busy.
[M099-66] · متحدث آخر: المقدم2(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:36:36 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Would it be pushing it to ask the if the 13.3, 13.4 is by 2027? And as Fereidun says the world needs another 8 or 9 or 10 million barrels per day, that capacity cannot come from shale. Is there a target for the 2030s for the kingdom?
[M099-67] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:36:51 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Can everybody help us, giving us the right market signals? Again, it is the market signals when people are talking about transitioning and cherry-picking, only do not do development, but existing field, do not spend your money on anything that would not deliver you a quick payback. This is not proper market signals, but actually and it is not a state secret, we usually go through a yearly review as a government, and if the market signals are right, and if we are to become in the comfort zone of moving more into expanding. Yes, but again, the whole world need the right market signals, need the clarity of policy.
[M099-68] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:37:54 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
You cannot tell manufacturers, refiners, upstreamers, downstreamers that this is going to be a prohibited industry and would be financing, would be tight and what have you and all of the above, and you create that environment, and yet you are mesmerized when people are not investing, when people are holding onto their money, wanting to see what will happen and what kind of market signals, clear market signals that would induce them, persuade them to invest or discourage them from investment.
[M099-69] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:38:37 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So I would encourage policymakers is to come out of the closet and speak up and say, we need it. I was very encouraged with the British government recently. I was very encouraged with the statement that the Minister of Energy and Trade and what have you. Yes, he is a personal friend, but he truly came out with a statement that is responsible enough, clear enough, and if everybody can speak up and come to reality, skip the la la land, I think we will be in a better shape to attend to the future, but certainly no one has a quick remedy of today.
[M099-70] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:39:26 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Thank you very much. Can I call on Mr. Thomas Raymond, he is the president of Total Trading in Geneva?
[M099-71] · متحدث آخر: المقدم3(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:39:36 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Good morning. Your Highness, it is TotalEnergies Fereidun I know fine.
[M099-72] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:39:40 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
But Patrick would have had a cardiac.
[M099-73] · متحدث آخر: المقدم3(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:39:47 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Exactly. You need to preserve Patrick, so please, say TotalEnergies. You have shown us a very comprehensive slides on the very high volatility of gas and power that we have seen in the last few months. Do you think that these extreme market conditions on power and gas are going to contribute to acceleration of the energy transition as it benefited the producers? Or on the opposite, it is going to slow down the transition as the consumers are seeing that these energies are less. Well, a more volatile than oil is. Thank you.
[M099-74] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:40:24 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Well, luckily, I am talking to Total, which Total is still working also on renewable. In fact, it is working in Saudi Arabia. We have a project with Total, and if you talk to your friends at the renewable, they will tell you they are having an extreme situation also on supply chain issues. We are going through reviews as we speak today on because of that. Look at how much price curves have moved over the last 2 years. We are not talking about 10 years, we see things as we see it today there are, you know, cost curves that had gone the 34, 35%, 40%, and you cannot assume that renewable will be disassociated from this holistic phenomena.
[M099-75] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:41:24 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
So while we are seeing, yes, LNG, natural gas and coal, but you know, my cynical mind, because I have a bit of a Frenchness in my cynical mind, how on earth people with a straight face can say we are transitioning when they are buying coal for almost 4 times what it is and burning coal and yet saying to a country like France, do not you ever produce nuclear? If this is not a contradiction, I do not know what is the, I do not know the meaning of contradiction, but you see, this is the hard-core of reality when it falls unexpectedly. People human will have to fend for themselves, realizing that there are priorities to attend to. What we are going through now is an apologetic approach to not to, because somebody cannot afford politically to say, we have got it wrong, we need to reassess.
[M099-76] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:42:44 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Yes, I have in a year ago, may a year ago, you know, I kept saying, what is this world about transitioning? Ever since mankind was brought from heaven to earth, the whole world is transitioning. I cannot think of a day that the world did not transcend into something else, so what is it about transitioning that says, I have to dishonor the past completely and move to a future which I am not capable yet of asserting or assuring that I can get to it, so what do you do? Is you up the ante and then it becomes politically correct, but then if you cannot meet it because you have not thought it over thoroughly, you muffled through trying to keep the promise because you do not want to dishonor it yet.
[M099-77] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:44:00 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
You know it is inachievable, but as a politician you want to survive it, so you go around the bushes in a tactical moves to try to continue to persuade the constituents that you are there, but it is, you know, a bumpy road, but we will move away from that. Again, remedies today is how can you superficially kick the can to say we are resolving it, but deep-heartedly you have not resolved it. The query, the question is for everybody, which is the same ask that I keep asking and I will continue to ask. Are we to attend to an energy crisis properly or is energy crisis attendance is nothing more than kicking the can, and as long as you can convince people that the solution is coming, but the solution is not coming. Actually, the problem is being continuously going to be aggravated and the consequences of it would become much more severe than what the world may or can be attended to.
[M099-78] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:45:33 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Thank you very much. Final question, not from a trader, but Dr Jeff Brown is president of FGE and intellectual leader of the company.
[M099-79] · متحدث آخر: المقدم4(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:45:44 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Thanks, Your Highness. I have really enjoyed this, I worked with Fereidun for many years now, so it has been a nice trip for me through the memory lane watching this as well. You actually addressed all the questions I had on investment, except for one sort of small piece to the puzzle, which is LNG. We have worked in the past occasionally with Aramco on plans to at one point invest in the US and LNG, import LNG with, you know, plans to potentially export at some point as well. Could you give us some thoughts around what you might be doing in the LNG space? Obviously prices have been extraordinary there.
[M099-80] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:46:28 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
With the plan I was just describing which is moving our energy mix and going through that, we call it the liquid displacement program, I think we will be needing almost all of our gas that we could produce, including the one that is in the divided zone, so we have an arrangement with Aramco in that they have converted one of the aquifers just to make sure that we have a kind of a reservoir or a stock, if you could call it a natural stock, to take care of the seasonality issue.
[M099-81] · سمو وزير الطاقة(HRH the Minister of Energy) · التوقيت 00:47:12 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
As you know, in winter demand comes down and then in the summer it goes up, so it is a good approach to have a natural, if you could call it, stocking think to stock gas at, but to make it sustainable for a continuous commitment for export as a LNG type of arrangement, I think, I would not say, unfortunately, I would say fortunately because if you have an economy that is thriving and prosperous and requires energy, that is not a curse, that is a privilege, so the way we see it is that every molecule of gas will be used, I am talking about methane, and ethane will be used domestically.
[M099-82] · متحدث آخر: المقدم1(other speaker — not the Minister) · التوقيت 00:48:16 · MPGC 2022 · 2022-05-16 · مشاهدة عند هذا التوقيت
Thank you very much, Your Highness. Really I have enjoyed this discussion today. I wish we could do longer, but I really appreciate your time. Please join me in thanking His Royal Highness.